In spite of ongoing debate, drone strikes are declining

While the debate over the legality of the US drone campaign in various places around the world rages on, Scott Shane of the New York Times pointed out yesterday that drone strikes worldwide are actually on the decline. They report that the number of strikes in Pakistan, where drones are most actively used, actually peaked back in 2010. In Yemen, where drone strikes served to decapitate the leadership of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the number spiked dramatically in 2012, but has since dropped off again. Meanwhile, no strikes have been reported in Somalia for more than a year.

The cause of this decline, according to NYT sources, include the diminishing list of high-level Al Qaeda targets, which they attribute to the success of the drone program, as well as other factors like weather and diplomatic concerns. However, Shane suggests that another factor may be the growing appreciation of the costs of the program. This is certainly a concern, especially as Al Qaeda uses the strikes as a propaganda tool and, thanks to the Urdu language press, many Pakistanis report to live in fear of drones (despite never having seen one). I, myself, have long argued that the drone program is legitimate and beneficial to US interests, with the caveat that we find a way to transition to law enforcement methods  within a reasonable amount of time. The only problem is figuring out how to do that in places like rural Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.

Hopefully, this is a topic that President Obama may address national security speech scheduled to take place tomorrow at the National Defense University. Unfortunately, while I have a lot of faith in President Obama on many fronts, I would be surprised if he goes beyond a mere recitation of the drone strike numbers, and actually proposes a way out.

Paul W. Taylor, Senior Fellow
Center for Policy & Research

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About paulwtaylor

Paul is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Policy & Research and an alumnus of Seton Hall Law School and the Whitehead School of Diplomacy and International Relations. Having obtained a joint-degree in law and international relations, he has studied international security, causes of war, national security law, and international law. Additionally, Paul is a veteran of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, with deployments to both Afghanistan and to Iraq, and has worked at the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda and Global Action to Prevent War. He has also participated in habeas litigation for Guantanamo Bay detainees and investigated various government policies and practices. In addition to his duties as a member of the editorial staff of TransparentPolicy.org, Paul now works at Cydecor, Inc., a defense contractor focused on naval irregular and expeditionary warfare. Paul's research and writing focuses on targeted killing, direct action, drones, and the automation of warfare.

One thought on “In spite of ongoing debate, drone strikes are declining

  1. Pingback: Drone strike kills 16 militants in Pakistan--for the last time? | TransparentPolicy.org

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